What with Kosovo’s recent declaration of independence, we are witnessing the rapid balkanization (forgive the irony!) of Europe. Unification often spells fragmentation in the long run. And this is the very real danger facing the future European Union. The map shows how bad the fragmentation can really get…
Variety is the Spice…
At present, the EU numbers 27 states. If we’re honest about it, the infrastructure is wearing thin and the political and administrative structures of the EU are finding it hard to cope with the divergent demands of a body which has a joint population of nearly 500 million people speaking 170 languages (including regional and minority) with a variety of world views. The idea of a Union here seems bizarre at the very least.
Regional Interests
There will come a time in the near future that the five major institutions of the EU (the Parliament; the Council; the Commission, the Court of Justice and the Court of Auditors) will no longer be able to cope with the demands of such a varied population. In the near future Croatia, Kosovo and perhaps Serbia will join the EU. Perhaps even Turkey and Ukraine. There will come a time when the right hand will not know what the left hand is doing. Mini alliances and pacts will form to support regional interests. The idea of the EU will go out the window.
Balkan Problem
The motivation of joining the EU (i.e. the carrot) is one of the main reasons why the Balkan area has become relatively peaceful of late. But what happens when the Balkan states suddenly find themselves (yet again) in one (pseudo-) state? Why should the interests of a greater Europe be of more importance than the interests of Serbian nationalism, or even the interests of a ‘Greater’ Albania (with populations in Serbia, Kosovo and Macedonia)? The EU were unable to prevent previous conflicts. How will they cope if a future conflict develops.
Reform & Constitution
The people arguing against an EU Constitution have no idea what is at stake. We need far-reaching and deep reforms of all EU institutions and we desperately need a constitution to regulate the future laws of a common European Union. The member states (and future member states) of the EU must decide whether they wish to work together as the members of a relatively weak alliance of countries, or as a more tightly-woven confederacy of states, or as a fully-fledged union of autonomous states who make decisions in unison for the greater good of the people living on the Old Continent. Either way, we, the citizens of Europe need to decide which way will secure a safer future.
February 21, 2008 at 9:47 am |
You exaggerate a little, old stick, Thuringia and Connaught are not seething at the gills with the desire for independence. The historical situation with the Balkans’ ethnic patchwork, which has dated back centuries, has no real parallel in most of Europe (although a quick check of the list of EU countries which oppose recognising an independent Kosovo reveals that there are still quite a few places where separatism thrives – Spain, Slovakia, Cyprus, among others).
And what would it matter, if all those entities managed to separate in peaceful fashion, à la Czech Republic/Slovakia, Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania? Slovenia has gone from a component of Yugoslavia to an independent and fully-fledged EU member in two shakes of Paddy Ashdown’s tail (after shooting Slobo’s men for eight or ten days first, but that doesn’t have to be compulsory). Why not a Europe of small states, confederated with their neighbours in local defence/trade pacts, and all subscribing to an EU-wide code of social and economic practices? A Scotland or a Silesia within that kind of framework could regain an identity and de facto independence long denied it.
February 21, 2008 at 12:48 pm |
There are no parallels here with Thuringia or Cannaught. The Kosovans generally want to ‘return’ into the arms of Albania and see independence as a step towards this. We all know that this isn’t going to happen in a hurry but we separate two ideas here:
1) What the indigineous people want
2) What ‘Europe’ wants
I have nothing against a confederation of small states but I think it’s about time we decided what it is we want, don’t you think? Bring on the next referendum! USE or not.
February 22, 2008 at 4:49 pm |
Maybe I’m a bit naive but somehow I don’t think the Balkan states will be any more worried about finding themselves in another pseudo-state than any other member of the EU. Firstly, the vast amounts of EU cash flowing in will ease the pain and secondly, at least they’ll be in it together with everyone else. I share your concern about how the EU institutions will cope though.
February 22, 2008 at 5:48 pm |
I don’t think they’ll be worried about being in the EU itself, but I can se the Croatians and Slovenes having to share the EU cake with Serbia…
February 26, 2008 at 12:55 pm |
The creation of a uniform body with the same economy and political aims is very difficult. There is no example in the world that could tell Europe how to do it; or at least I think there isn’t. There’s much upheaval coming still but can’t blame EU for trying to make this Babel look solid. I really like the map and especially the Western Territory of Kipchak Horde to the east:)
February 26, 2008 at 1:57 pm |
The USA, I think, has done a pretty could job.
My personal favourite is the Kingdom of Sicily beyond the Lighthouse.