Exit Poles – Enter New Poles

To be honest, I am absolutely disgusted, disenchanted and disillusioned with Poland and the fact that Polish people have such a feeble approach to democracy and the freedom to change things themselves. Are Polish people lazy? Do they want someone else to decide for them?

Democracy?
Nothing, it seems, can explain the low turnout in the general elections. 54% is feeble. Once again it shows that Poland is bottom of the European pile for citizen turnout. The argument that 50 years of communism has brain-washed the people is simply invalid. Hungary, Slovakia, Romania arguably had more tough regimes yet turnout is much higher.

Step Forward
Anyway, let’s move on. The latest stats (22nd October, 20:00) paint a grim picture for the former ruling party, Law and Justice:

PO 41%
PiS 32%
LiD 13%
PSL 8%

Finally, we can all breathe easily and sing “Ding Dong the PiS is dead” (listen here). The arrogance and seemingly undemocratic opinions, machinations and direction of the PiS government has gone. The ridiculous idea of creating a ‘new (fourth) republic’ has crumbled away.

Powerful Parliament
Personally, the most important result of these elections is not the fact that PO won, but the fact that there are only four parties in the Polish parliament. Right-wing, extremist LPR and populist Self-Defence have disappeared. Thank God!

The Choice is yours…

Who will you choose on Sunday? Who will you vote for?

Civic Platform (PO)
Law and Justice (PiS)
Left and Democrats (LiD)
The Polish People’s Party (PSL)

The choice is yours…

On the Eve of War

The countdown begins. Millions of Poles will be visiting polling stations around the country to cast their vote and decide who will take Poland forward for the next four years. Many political scientists have said that these will be the most important elections since 1989 with Poles being, at last, fully conscious of the burdens of democracy and the responsibility of choice.

Let Battle Commence
Turnout is what is most important in these elections. Only a large turnout will guarantee a genuine mandate for government for the political party that wins. A large turnout would also bring an end to the apathy and disenchantment surrounding Polish politics since 1989.

Knights in Shining Armour
As a commentator it would be irresponsible and unfair of me to pinpoint a candidate or a party who I prefer or like. Yes, I criticise Law and Justice (PiS) but the job of commentators and journalists is to keep the government on its toes, whoever it is. Let’s briefly look at the four parties that, I believe, really matter.

PO
Most people believe Civic Platform (PO) is the only powerful and viable alternative to PiS. Their strength lies in the fact that they have a positive approach to free enterprise, social relations, freedom of thought and most of the core values of democracy. Their members are generally centre-right and come from intellectual, academic or business backgrounds. In his recent mano-a-mano debate with the Prime Minister, PO leader Donald Tusk proved to be a tough and witty adversary outclassing the PM with concrete and elegant ripostes.

PiS
The ruling party has not made many friends in the international or domestic world during their two years in government. It began with the dismissal of charismatic PM Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz by party leader Kaczyński who later took over the PM mantle. Without doubt their greatest sin was forming a coalition with populist Self-Defence (Samoobrona) and right-wing, extremist League of Polish Families (LPR). Both minnows were later ejected by the PM which, in effect, caused the destabilisation of government and the need for new elections.

LiD
The Left and Democrats (LiD) were initially supposed to be a party of unification and dialogue bringing together people from the centre-right and centre-left, however, they appear leader-less and weak. Leader Wojciech Olejniczak is leader in name only and their figure-head, former President Aleksander Kwaśniewski, rather than boost the party’s popularity (which he initially did) has rambled slovenly from one media blunder to another. Kwaśniewski recently appeared drunk in public on two occasions and is known for his penchant for the hard stuff.

PSL
The dark horse of these elections is without doubt the Polish Peasant Party (known also as the Polish People’s Party) headed by Waldemar Pawlak. Unbeknown to many, PSL is actually Poland’s oldest political party with traditions dating back to the parliament of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. PSL has over the past few years evolved into a party of quiet intelligence avoiding controversy and commentating only on those issues that require discussion. It is the only party to actively search for dialogue and cooperation. Through the recent acquisition of young entrepreneur and Gadu Gadu founder Łukasz Foltyn, PSL has shown it will also be a force for business and innovation.

And the Winner is…
Four parties with four different approaches to politics and four different visions of Poland’s future in Europe and the world. PO and PiS will be fighting head-to-head for the largest slice of the pie but what is of additional interest is how much of the pie will be given to LiD and PSL. Will LiD become Poland’s ‘third’ power? Will PSL be able to win the rural vote and spread into the towns and cities? Zero hour is Sunday.

Towards a Two-party System

Opinion polls are showing a clear trend towards the development of a three-party system, if not even a two-party system in Poland. Seen as a mark of a solid democracy, this pattern may signal the end of party splintering and bickering in Poland.

Big Three
It might not, but there’s hope that three parties and three parties only – Civic Platform (PO), Law and Justice (PiS) and Left and Democrats (LiD) – will make up the next parliament and become rooted in the national consciousness as the ‘big three’.

No Populism
An end to populist League of the Polish Right (LPR) and Self-Defence (Samoobrona) may bring relief to a host of people, although the loss of the Polish Peasant Party (PSL) could be a sad moment.

Big Debate
Yesterday’s debate between (PiS) PM Kaczyński and former President (and LiD leader) Kwaśniewski showed that Kaczyński fears Donald Tusk and PO. The PM hopes that by agreeing to debate with Kwaśniewski (and not Tusk), LiD will slice a few percentage points off PO thereby allowing PiS to win.

Divide and Conquer
It is a dangerous game and one which could inadvertently lead to PiS losing the next elections. Kaczyński has already got rid of LPR and Self-Defence using his divide and conquer strategy but a similar strategy might not necessarily work with PO and LiD. What it will certainly do is strengthen core voter allegiances in all three parties.

Vote Hope
The only hope for a ‘normalisation’ of politics in Poland through the development of a three-party system is voter participation. Only a large turnout which matches the European average (of around 80%) will bring change to Polish politics. It is time for Poles to change the face of their country themselves.

In Praise of “Meritum”

There is a great word in Polish which is popular amongst politicians. Politics abounds in highfalutin language and exaggeration which is part of the reason why I so love this word. “Meritum” can be roughly translated as “the heart of the matter”, “crux” or “substance” and it’s both the sword and shield of every self-respecting politician in Poland.

Of Sword and Shield
When wanting to go on the attack, a politician will use the “meritum” sword to tell the nation that their party is a party of action and not words, they will not bandy around the problem but stick to the “meritum”. When attacked by another, the politician will employ the “meritum” shield claiming the opponent is unwilling to talk about the ‘real’ issues (the “meritum”) but is once again using empty slogans. Welcome to Polish politics.

Substance-free Politics
For all their waffle it seems there is absolutely no “meritum” there. You may all say that this is common to politics in every state in the world. Perhaps. But Poland is in a current, dangerous state of policy-free politics. According to a few observers and several historians, the reason for this particularly worrying state of affairs lies in the resolution of the Round Table Talks of 1989.

Knights of the Round Table
The round table set a precedent for the whole of the communist bloc and for many other countries around the world – here a road-map was created that allowed for peaceful power-sharing. The Communists sat down with Solidarność and agreed to formulate a plan for the common good and future of Poland. What, I ask, could be more noble than that? However, the Round Table Talks were more than just a European and world precedent, they were a historical precedent for Poland. And it is this fact, this peaceful transition and transferral of power, that is at the core of Poland’s current problems.

In Search of an Enemy
Poland’s long history has been full of victories, defeats, revolts and uprisings. Each and every change of power brought with it a bloody upheaval. Every time. However, when the Communists decided to cede power to Solidarność, not one drop of blood was shed. This was a peaceful revolution in the true sense of the word. However, it also meant that the enemy was now an ally, a colleague, someone to work with. What Poland was lacking was an enemy…

Enemy Found
Ever since the Round Table Talks, Poland has been blindly searching for an enemy, someone it can vent its anger at for fifty years of communist oppression and the savagery of two world wars that were largely enacted on its front lawn. Despite the wise words of Tadeusz Mazowiecki and his “thick line“, divisions were created. It began with the so-called “War Upstairs” in 1990 which saw the splintering of Solidarność. An enemy was found but no real substance, no “meritum” was behind it.

Continual Search
This incessant search for an enemy continues today. Polish politics is no longer divided into clear demarcations – “Commies” and “Solidaries”, nor is it divided by ideology and substance. Several former Communists are members of ruling PiS (the self-declared successors of the Solidarność legacy), PO (who also hail from Solidarność), like PiS, also seem to have no clear policies and to all intents and purposes are a more liberal faction of PiS, LiD is an odd amalgam of former Communists and Liberals which, for all its hot air, has no real manifesto, Self-Defence will take anyone that will join, and finally (far) right-wing LPR have recently teamed up with UPR, a party known for supporting the legalisation of drugs, prostitution and euthanasia.

Policies? What Policies!
It seems the one thing that all these parties have in common is a blatant lack of substance. Even little PSL is no longer the Peasant’s Party it was once so proud to be. We are witnessing a complete erosion of policy. Parties do not wage war against each other holding their sword of substance in one hand and their shield of consistence in the other. The battle-cry has simply become “attack” regardless of the fact that you are actually attacking someone who shares your views. A good example here is Stefan Niesiołowski (now of PO) and Marek Jurek (now of newly-formed LPR) who were founder members of the National Christian Union. PO is labelled as a liberal party whereas LPR is right-wing.

In Praise of Substance
Personal animosity and the hunger for power is now far more important than historical background, ideological legacy or political beliefs. Poland is in desperate need of a political debate of substance where all parties are obliged to publish their manifestoes, their programmes for the future and their core ideologies. Yes, the average Polish person may be interested in the drunken antics of former President Aleksander Kwaśniewski or the waffling of Nelly Rokita but neither of these facts are more important than the concrete manifestoes of their respective parties.

Rokita Walks Out

Polish politics truly is a joy – full of surprises and ins and outs, comings and goings. Yesterday evening Jan Maria Rokita (never trust a man with a woman’s name) walked out of politics. In a late-evening interview with Andrzej Morozowski on TVN24 Rokita ostentatiously announced to the world that he will not be standing in the upcoming elections.

For Love Nor Money…
Although shocked by this bombshell (his body language told the truth of the matter, his eyes were all over the place) Andrzej Morozowski was professional and calm enough to ask a few vital questions that shed light on the thermonuclear explosion that came with this announcement. It turns out Rokita took the decision to walk out of politics for love… (shyeah right!)

Lover’s Tiff
There is a lot of history to this decision and it seems to have begun several years ago when cracks began to appear in the cherub-like facade of Civic Platform (PO). It became apparent that Donald Tusk and Jan Rokita were not the closest of buddies everyone made them out to be. Disagreements became tiffs, tiffs became arguments, arguments became public slanging matches. The atmosphere cooled but the damage had been done. Rokita was no longer joint leader of PO and Tusk became its overload.

Lovely Kraków
Things began to hot up when local leaders of Kraków’s PO office (Rokita is from Kraków) decided not to put Rokita’s Kraków colleagues’ names forward for re-election. Rokita then came out with his ultimatum – either the names of his ‘crew’ are put forward for re-election or he resigns. Negotiations began…

Love Thy Wife
When Rokita explained his reasons for leaving the political scene he gave one major reason – because he loves and respects his wife. Several hours before Nelly Rokita (Jan’s German wife) had decided to move to the enemy camp and become Lech Kaczyński’s presidential advisor for women’s affairs. Obviously, the repercussions for PO were seismic as Nelly had herself once been a member of this party. Rokita announced that out of respect for his wife and not to create an ambiguous situation where one half of the marriage was in the Law and Justice (PiS) camp and the other in the PO camp, he felt it right to resign.

What next?
Most commentators wholeheartedly believe that Nelly’s decision to join the dark-side was a great excuse for Jan Maria to jump ship and show PO the middle finger in thanks for the way he has been treated for the last few years and especially following the PO ‘Battle for Kraków’. My own peculiar theory is that Rokita’s decision to resign from active politics now – at the start of the election campaign – is a masterstroke which will allow him to return as an independent candidate, supported by both parties in the future PO-PiS coalition as a bridge between the two camps. For those who do not know, Rokita is a kind of devil in Polish…

Wise Words of Wałęsa

I find it sickening when I hear the invectives and abuse targeted at Lech Wałęsa by members of Poland’s ruling elite crowd. I have always been a great fan of Wałęsa for moving mountains. I may not love all of his policies, but he showed the world that everything is possible. The humble electrician who outshone the throngs of academics and seasoned politicians around him.

Kacz-Attack
Both Jarosław and Lech Kaczyński have been eager to convince the nation of the need for moral cleanliness and good manners. They have also been first to recognise an erosion in the standards of Polish politics. Odd really that it should come while they are in power. Strangely enough it was Jarosław Kaczyński who took part in the disgusting act of the 4th June 1993 when members of his former party Centre Agreement decided to hurl abuse at the then President Lech Wałęsa by demonstrating outside the Belweder Presidential Palace whilst carrying pictures of a red swine soiled with the words “Bolek” – a reference to the ridiculous insinuation that Wałęsa was a communist collaborator. They also burned an effigy of Wałęsa demonstrating their aversion to the President.

Wałęsa Speaks
Many might laugh at the way Wałęsa conducts himself linguistically, but the meaning behind his words is often worthy of analysis and it is obvious that the man was made leader of Solidarity and President of Poland for the other skills he possesses. Wałęsa has an uncanny ability to quickly understand a situation, evaluate it and capture what is actually going on. Wałęsa is gifted with a wisdom most politicians would give their right hand for.

Wise Words
So what has Lech Wałęsa been saying? One of his first acts after the election of the Kaczyński twins was to resign as honorary head of Solidarity wary of the influence the Kacz twins would have on the future of the trade union. Wałęsa was proved right. When asked to comment on the new PM and new President, Wałęsa was quick to warn the nation that voters will regret their choice of party in PiS as all the Kaczyńskis are able to do is destroy, create divisions and cause hurt. Mr Wałęsa hit the nail on the head. Wałęsa recently said that he is concerned that there is no effective opposition in Poland. Low and behold, out of nowhere PiS have overtaken Civic Platform in the polls.

Listening to Lech
These two messages are important. Firstly, the Kaczyńskis have an uncanny ability not to be liked, twin politicians who occupy a mindset quite unlike the world around them. As Wałęsa said, they are great at creating divisions and burning bridges. Secondly, Wałęsa was again right in scolding the opposition for having no policies. Should PiS win the next general election the fault will lie firmly with LiD and PO, and of course all those voters who decide not to vote. The conclusion is to listen more to the wise words of Lech Wałęsa. I recently Skyped dear old Lech. I hope he replies…

Elections or Bust

It seems more than likely that the moral burden of early elections will fall upon us like Thor’s Hammer come late Autumn. Poland is facing its most important vote since the fall of communism and 1989. I believe that there are two possible scenarios which we have to be prepared for.

Civic Platform Wins
The first possibility is that Law and Justice (PiS) becomes so utterly disgraced, arrogant and stubborn in its ways that it fails to see its house tumbling down around its feet and fails to win the next elections leaving Civic Platform (PO) to reap the winnings and become right-wing party number one. The responsibility on PO to win the next elections and be successful is therefore huge. Many (intelligent, educated and generally nice) people who I have spoken to have already said that if PO wins and fails to bring success, tolerance and moderate economic stability to Poland then they will never go to the elections again. This is in a country which already struggles to get a fifty percent turn-out in most general elections. And who’s to blame them with the failings of Solidarity and the constant splintering of the right-wing which was supposed to bring freedom and wealth after the torment of the communist years?

Law and Justice Wins
There is a dark part of my mind that believes indifference and apathy have become so ingrained in the Polish psyche that not even this amount of arrogance, scandal or treachery will do anything to make the Poles stand up and be counted and do something to change the way their country is being run. This second scenario will see the election turn-out to be around forty percent with the dark emissaries of anti-Semitic Tadeusz Rydzyk (see previous post) and his unholy followers turning out in vast hardcore numbers against the witless few representing Poland’s embryonic middle-class who make up the largest proportion of the disenchanted and apathetic masses. A PiS victory would bring about an end to economic growth, an end to enlightened European tolerance and an end to a once proud country. Poland would quite literally be on its knees.

European Perspective
Whatever the outcome, whoever the winner, the repercussions of these elections will be widespread not just for Polish history, society and culture but for Europe also. Like it or not, Poland is one of the larger EU member states and with a very large population; a large population who have a penchant for travelling, moving and working in other countries which means that political decisions taken in Warsaw could well influence what goes on in London, Paris, Berlin and Brussels.